Karstens Out

Prior to the game, the Yankees confirmed Jeff Karstens suffered a broken leg, was headed for the DL and likely out at least 6-8 weeks. Colter Bean heads back on the Scranton shuttle, which currently leads the majors in frequently flyer miles. Bring back Bean over Rasner, means both Igawa and Hughes are both staying in the rotation for the foreseeable future, alongside Wang, Pettitte, and Mussina. Carl Pavano supposedly threw off the mound pain free today, but if you account for the rehab starts, at least one mysterious injury while rehabbing, and further throwing off the bullpen mound, he may not return until June. The starting pitching is starting to stabilize with Pettitte, Mussina, and Wang, but they desperately need all three to stay healthy and pitch deep into games. If Igawa can pitch close to how he did against Boston they will survive. Hughes will not be more than a 5-6 inning fifth starter this year, and they should not try to make him more than that.

Condolences to the family of Josh Hancock and the St. Louis Cardinals franchise. Five years after Daryl Kile's tragic death , another active Cardinal player passed away last night in a car accident. No words can describe how terrible this is.

Plenty of Blame

Big Stein is hovering. Torre is on the hot seat. But what about pitching coach Ron Guidry, leading a pitching staff last in baseball in Quality Starts, in the bottom three for Team ERA, and last in Team Saves. Obviously, the injuries have contributed, but the pitchers who have pitched have been terrible. How about GM Brian Cashman, who built this team, leaving it vulnerable to these problems?

Let us stay with Cashman a second, and review some of his decisions. Over the past year he set out to cut payroll, rebuild the farm system, and continue to put the best team on the field. Contradictory goals. Here are the key decisions over the past season:

• Pass on Daisuke Matsuzaka and free-agents Ted Lilly and Barry Zito stating long-term, big money contracts for pitchers are too risky. OK, I buy that.
• Trading Jaret Wright, Gary Sheffield, and Randy Johnson, for low-priced minor-league pitchers, another step in the right direction.
• Sign Kei Igawa, an unproven, seemingly middle of the road Japanese starter, to a four-year $20 million contract, plus a $20+ million dollar fee.
• Shell out almost six million a year for Kyle Farnsworth before 2006, a pitcher who has never lived up to expectations.
• Trade for Bobby Abreu, starting the downside of his career at 33 years old, and then paying him $15 million.
• Sign Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina to one-year contracts, veterans near the end of their careers.
• Hand over centerfield to Johnny Damon, another aging superstar.
• And even though it was before the new doctrine started, someone is responsible for Carl Pavano.

Scanning these moves, we see that Cashman is true to his word. Cashman is stocking the minor leagues, also refusing to trade any prospects for big name players, not doling out long-term contracts to pitchers, and refusing to get into free agent bidding wars. However, the Igawa move needs some explaining. A knee-jerk to Boston’s Dice-K signing? Abreu and Farnsworth? And I know everyone loves Abreu, and we traded very little to get him, but I still think the Yanks could have done something more creative and used that money for two quality starters.

Therefore, his track record is good, but not great, over the past year or two. Problem is, the scorecard will not be official until the prospects he has held, see Phil Hughes and Jose Tabata, and the prospects he has obtained, Humberto Sanchez, Ross Ohlendorf, et al., get to the majors and perform. In the meantime, the big club is extremely old, not deep, and still expensive. There in lies the problem, without saying as much, the Yankees are attempting to rebuild, but the fans and management still expect to win now. As I mentioned this is contradictory, and hard to pull off. If Cashman has full control, as they say, he needs to go full out with rebuilding, and set the expectation that there will be a one or two season lull while laying the foundation.

My gut says Cashman is on the right track, he just needs to get fully committed to the rebuilding program, so no more Kei Igawa or Kyle Farnsworth signings, and we, the fans, need to prepare to miss the playoffs at some point. Then Cashman must put the coaching staff in place to nurture a young team, not Joe Torre’s forte.

If you want to blame the current predicament on someone, it is probably Cashman, who left the 2007 team vulnerable. However, he did it with best intentions for the long-term health of the franchise. If you want to rebuild, there will be losing seasons. Check out the Indians and Oakland, both endured down times while building the minor league system, and have emerged as sustained powers. If the Yankees can do that, with the resources they have for adding free agents, they will be unstoppable. However, if they keep trying to win now, while rebuilding, well, look no further than the Knicks. A scary proposition.

For now, I will save my thoughts on moves and methodology I hope to see employed for another column. Chime in with your thoughts. Is it Cashman, Torre, the players, Steinbrenner, whose fault is 2007? And is it worth losing to rebuild?

Like Old Times

Everything is right in Yankee-land, at least for one day. The starter, or in this case a starter banished to the bullpen, gets a late-inning lead to the bullpen, sprinkle in a few clutch hits, and Rivera slams the door in the ninth. The old formula, on a day they really needed it.

The analysis must start with Kei Igawa. Up to this point he appeared to be a lost cause, another ludicrous Yankee contract. A soft-tosser unable to locate a fastball, or throw a dominant breaking pitch, usually struggles through a mediocre minor league career. Yesterday, he located the fastball, threw first-pitch strikes, setting up his above-average change-up, and wholla, he had Red Sox hitters off-balance all day, right from inducing a ground-ball double play from David Ortiz, the first batter he faced. Also, he showcased an improved fastball and slider, possibly the result of improved mechanics. With all the injuries, and Karstens now out of the picture with the leg injury, I bet Igawa earns another start immediately. But before hopping on the Igawa Express, it did take six shutout innings to lower his ERA to 6.08, so let’s see it again.

Offensively, it was the old stand-bys coming through, Jeter and Posada. Meanwhile, Abreu and Cano continue to rack up the big LOB numbers in the box score. These hitters, and the Matsui’s and Damon’s of the world, need to start hitting, and hitting in the clutch. And the pitching was not flawless. Case in point, the ulcers Kyle Farnsworth caused in the 8^th inning. I stand by my words, he will NOT be the primary setup pitcher by mid-May. Farnsworth reminds me of Tom Gordon pitching in Boston in the playoffs everytime he takes the mound.

The Yanks need to build on this game. What could have been disastrous, after Karstens’ injury on the first pitch, and a six game losing streak, Torre’s bunch finally showed some spunk. Now they send their ace to mound. Its hard to put a pitcher making only his second start of the year on the spot, but Wang needs to keep the momentum going today. This could be the weekend they look back as turning around the season, or it could be the one that killed the season. Its only April, but in Yankees world, the season is always on the line.

Like Old Times

Everything is right in Yankee-land, at least for one day. The starter, or in this case a starter banished to the bullpen, gets a late-inning lead to the bullpen, sprinkle in a few clutch hits, and Rivera slams the door in the ninth. The old formula, on a day they really needed it.

The analysis must start with Kei Igawa. Up to this point he appeared to be a lost cause, another ludicrous Yankee contract. A soft-tosser unable to locate a fastball, or throw a dominant breaking pitch, usually struggles through a mediocre minor league career. Yesterday, he located the fastball, setting up his above-average change-up, and wholla, he had Red Sox hitters off-balance all day, right from inducing a ground-ball double play from David Ortiz, the first batter he faced. With all the injuries, and Karstens now out of the picture with the leg injury, I bet Igawa earns another start immediately. But before hopping on the Igawa Express, it did take six shutout innings to lower his ERA to 6.08, so let’s see it again.

Offensively, it was the old stand-bys coming through, Jeter and Posada. Meanwhile, Abreu and Cano continue to rack up the big LOB numbers in the box score. These hitters, and the Matsui’s and Damon’s of the world, need to start hitting, and hitting in the clutch. And the pitching was not flawless. Case in point, the ulcers Kyle Farnsworth caused in the 8^th inning. I stand by my words, he will NOT be the primary setup pitcher by mid-May. Farnsworth reminds me of Tom Gordon pitching in Boston in the playoffs everytime he takes the mound.

The Yanks need to build on this game. What could have been disastrous, after Karstens’ injury on the first pitch, and a six game losing streak, Torre’s bunch finally showed some spunk. Now they send their ace to mound. Its hard to put a pitcher making only his second start of the year on the spot, but Wang needs to keep the momentum going today. This could be the weekend they look back as turning around the season, or it could be the one that killed the season. Its only April, but in Yankees world, the season is always on the line.

Ready to Hit Eject?

The NY Times, The Post, ESPN Radio, and probably even The Onion, are reporting that Steinbrenner is on the brink of firing Joe Torre. The question, should he be fired? Yes, its time for a change. OK, but is April the right time and who fills in? More questions, than answers.

For those who think its unfair to blame Torre since the Yanks have been ravaged by injuries and an ineffective bullpen, but you can make similar arguments for other managers. For instance, look at 2006, is it Buck Showalter’s problem that Texas never acquired pitching, forget dealing with injuries. Or did Ken Macha fail by continually making the playoffs and piece together winning seasons. Or the Cubs, Prior and Wood, need we say more. These managers were still fired.

Injuries aside, the team has been lethargic, the bullpen has been battered and overused, and while the offense has scored they have failed in some clutch spots. How long is he going to stick with Abreu in the 3 spot with an average barely above .230. After awhile taking a lot of pitches does not mean that much. Obviously his use of the bullpen has been questioned. But I think he needs to go because he is not motivating them to play hard. The Yanks need a fresh face, just like they need a fresh arm. Someone to light a fire under them. Sit players who are not performing. Juggle the lineup.

Who is the replacement? Odds are Girardi or Mattingly are next in line. My choice is Girardi. The team needs a contrast from Torre’s style, and Girardi’s hard-nosed attitude may be the answer. Plus, he would bring more of an outside perspective than Mattingly could, which may make it easier to rock the boat.

Does firing Torre mean the end of the Yankees season? Not exactly. Without a full analysis on performances after in-season firings, one blog reports about 11% of changes leading to playoff appearances. There is Cito Gaston in Toronto and the many Yankee teams of the late ‘70’s and early ’80’s. With the pitching getting healthy, this change would not eliminate the Yanks from the playoff conversation. But since there is no telling how the team reacts (see the Knicks after Isiah Thomas’ contract extension), it could just easily go downhill quick.

If the Sox sweep the series I think this becomes a very real possibility, and I’m not going to be upset about it.

Phil’r Up

Is he ready? Are the Yanks summoning the kid too soon? Is it a one-start cameo or is he here to stay? Will he be on a pitch count? Surrounded by more questions than answers, Yankee “prospect” Philip Hughes makes his debut tonight at the Stadium.

Hughes has all the talent in the world, and has quickly gone from the Yankees top pitching prospect to the best prospect in all of baseball, but he is not the 2007 Yankee Savior. Rookie pitchers rarely have a major impact on pennant contending teams, especially one as desperate for pitching help as the 2007 Yankees.

Throw into the equation that phenom pitching debuts rarely last more than 5 or 6 innings, and obviously one start is not an indicator of career potential, and my conclusion, or better yet my plea is to not expect too much from Hughes, tonight or this year.

Chien-Ming Wang, a much less-heralded prospect debuted in late April 2005 with seven solid innings of two-run ball against the same Blue Jays Hughes takes the mound against. Before that, the last Yankee pitching prospect to forge a successful career, Andy Pettitte, made five relief appearances before his first career start against Kansas City, a 5.1 inning effort giving up one earned run and striking out three, and taking the loss.

Hughes has drawn comparisons to Roger Clemens. The Rocket gave up 11 hits and four earned runs in 5.2 innings against Cleveland back in 1984. A far cry from his hall of fame career. Fast forward to 1998, after a much-heralded, unmemorable debut and first few starts, Kerry Wood strikes out 20 five games into his career. At that point would anyone have predicted that Russ Ortiz would have the most wins of any rookie pitchers from that season, or that Roy Halladay would be the best pitcher from that crop. Hallday himself, after twirling a one-hitter in his second career start, took four more years to reach double digit wins and elite status.

The bottom line, tonight will not make or break Hughes, and I hope the Yanks and their fans are not thinking he is coming up here and will win 20 this year. Patience please. Enjoy the talent, the moment, but come back in five years to make a judgment.

126 Home-Runs, 90+ Losses

A-Rod tied for the most home-runs ever in April, connecting on his 14^th of the season in the 9^th. And there is still six games left in the month. Baseball loves it stats and A-Rod is putting up some for the ages, one short of the RBI record for April, batting over .400, and closing in quickly on 500 career homers. Unfortunately, he does not pitch.

Once again, a Yankee starter is unable to get through the fifth. Kei Igawa was tattooed. He has not looked good, and personally, I am afraid he is confirming the fact that many people think the Yanks overspent and reacted to the Dice-K signing. If not for injuries Igawa would have been on the bus to Scranton by now. If they keep waiting, his ERA will be too inflated to fit on that bus. They will need to get the Madden Cruiser.

Joe Torre is on a quest. He is trying to use every relief pitcher in every game, and ruin at least two careers in the process. Since that challenge is not hard enough, he has decided it needs to be done without using Kyle Farnsworth, the highest paid middle reliever. In a stretch where no starter outside of Andy Pettitte is getting past the fifth inning, and they are losing games when they offense puts up six or seven runs, its amazing that Farnsworth has pitched nary an inning. Two possibilities, one is that Torre has lost all confidence in the latest big-money middle relief bust. While probably true, these were not close games and Torre clearly could have used Farnsworth to eat an inning while losing to Tampa instead of using the immortal Colter Bean. The other possibility is something is seriously wrong. If that’s the case, the Yanks have to look at putting him on the DL and getting another arm in here. Just to survive. If he is not hurt, and the Astros can still get Brad Lidge into a game, I am sure Torre can find a spot.

In the midst of a four game losing streak, with a sub-500 record, there is plenty of blame to go around. The team is just playing sloppy and lazy. There are no excuses for giving up a stolen base without having anyone even cover second base, or not advancing an extra base when an outfielder bobbles the ball.

The season is not lost, but I do not know if this will turn around soon. Wang and Mussina are both close to returning, but will either be able to pitch deep into games when they return? And with the snap decision to bring up Phil Hughes, who will definitely be on a strict pitch count, will the bullpen get any relief.

In the past, when things seemed bleak the Yanks have always reacted by jettisoning minor leaguers for a replacement. Hopefully they can resist the calls for Clemens…at least for now.